The Green Column

The Green Column

by Richard C. MacCrea, Andrews Valley Initiative

rmaccrea1@gmail.com

Long term housing downturn forecast

That is the conclusion of an interesting study that we should all be thinking about. The driving force is the aging of the baby boomers. They are now getting beyond the house buying age. The 2008 study by Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu concludes that to survive, the housing industry must plan for this epic shift in the housing market.

The baby boomers are the large population of people born right after World War II. The oldest baby boomers are turning 65. That is the age when people are more likely to sell a home than buy one. Imagine what is about to happen nationwide when more and more baby boomers turn 65 and begin to sell their home. What about us locally? The market for our construction and real estate industry is beginning to shrink. The study predicts that this trend will continue for years, that the demand for large suburban lot style homes will decrease, while more and more existing homes of that type will become vacant. They predict further decreases in home values, especially large single family homes. Added to the banking problems and the recession, it is easy to see that our construction industry must change to survive. We need to stop building large suburban style spec homes.

We must keep the baby boomers from leaving and attract younger generations. We need to redesign our communities to attract other generations, but do this in a way that preserves our natural beauty and culture.

The aging baby boomers will need better health care. They need interesting activities, social interaction with people of different ages, smaller homes that require less maintenance, less cost, and are more convenient to safe shopping.

The younger generations are more attracted to an urban environment. Not only do they want a community with an active nightlife, but many want to live in the city. They favor what is green, natural, and real. They want homes that are energy efficient, communities where they don’t need a car. They prefer to walk or bicycle to the restaurant or work. They must have high speed internet, fast enough for high definition video.

I could sum up the two previous paragraphs with the phrase: “New Urbanism.” Google that phrase. This is something that started over twenty years ago and could really help make our mountain communities vibrant. We can develop our forgotten cities into well planned communities with attractive residential, small business, office, and entertainment all together with spots for gardens, art, and music. Create towns where people want to get out of their cars and spend the day. We could see an increase in businesses that drive economic growth while consuming less energy and causing less pollution. Our governments would have a better tax base. Money would circulate more within the community, instead of being tapped out by huge international corporations. Our towns could become even more beautiful.

Right now Andrews Valley Initiative is working on these ideas, to turn one of the most economically blighted towns into a sustainable community that is a model for the mountains. Do you want to help? Drop us a line.

Richard C. MacCrea is the director of The Greening of  Andrews Valley, a program of Andrews Valley Initiative. He works in the field of energy efficient, green building. rmaccrea1@gmail.com